Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Are Wis. / Michigan Dems in Trouble, Early Polling #'s

From South Capitol Street

Interesting numbers.

The polls featuring incumbent Democrats are most striking. In WI 08, Rep. Steve Kagen (D) is trailing roofing contractor Reid Ribble (R) 57% to 39% in a On Message poll of 400 likely voters conducted Sept. 15-16. While Kagen was always seen as a target – the DCCC had reserved time in the Green Bay district — these are miserable numbers for an incumbent.

Retiring Rep. David Obey‘s seat in WI 07 has been one of the most targeted races of the cycle so far. Both the NRCC and the DCCC have run ads to boost the campaigns of former “Real World” star and Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R) and state Sen. Julie Lassa (D). The NRCC poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin and Associates from Sept. 15-16, shows Duffy holding a commanding 52% to 38% lead over Lassa among 400 likely voters. Those numbers are strikingly different than the internal poll Lassa released Tuesday showing her trailing Duffy 42% to 41%.

Michigan’s 1st District seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D), has also been a target for both parties, as both the NRCC and DCCC have aired ads there. The NRCC survey, conducted by Hill Research Consultants Sept. 19-21, found Republican Dan Benishek leading Democrat Gary McDowell 40% to 24% among 400 likely voters. In this Upper Peninsula district, Obama is viewed unfavorably by 56% in the survey.

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